Regression Methods for Analyzing Risk Factors Causing Cardiovascular Disease in Muzaffarabad AJ&K, Pakistan

Abstract

Background: The aim of the study was to determine the most likely risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to model the prevalence of CVD in patients arriving at Abbas Institute of Medical Sciences hospital, Muzaffarabad Azad Kashmir, Pakistan.
Objective: This paper attempted to identify the significant risk factors associated with CVD in Muzaffarabad. A hospital-based, case- control study was conducted in Muzaffarabad Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, to identify the most significant risk factors that could expose the normal person to CVD as an individual and to predict the increased threat by mutual effect of risk factors like age, blood pressure, pulse rate, family history, diabetes and smoking. A total of 150 cases of coronary artery disease along with 250 controls were studied.
Methodology: Descriptive analysis was done and binary logistic regression carried out with goodness of fit test such as cox and Snell’s test, likelihood ratio test and Chi-square test to detect the significant risk factors.
Results: The present analysis shows that for age group 60 and above the risk of CVD is higher as compared to other age groups. It is also projected that people with blood pressure (systolic) >140, pulse rate >120, diabetic and with positive family history are more likely to have cardio-vascular disease.
Conclusion: The present study concludes that in the presence of increased age, pulse rate, systolic blood pressure, diabetes and a family history of CVD there is 0.97 probability for a person to be a CVD patient.